Monday, January 31, 2011

Education Reforms In India

I assume that you have heard about the decision of the Government making 10th standard examinations optional. However, students are required to appear for the same in their respective schools. Students and examiners must have heaved a sigh of relief. We might tend to support this decision only considering the the fact that students would now be relieved from being subject to the pressures of competition at least for one more year. But does this make sense? No.

As a matter of fact, students would now have to face significant competition, not just after two years from this event (10th standard examinations), and that too, not just for one examination but too several and for years thereafter. The greatest fear that I, as a concerned observer have in mind, is that Schools will now mechanically pass students in the examination whether or not they possess the necessary competence. Instead of moving to such an extreme situation in a single step, the Government could have opted for a step-by-step approach and opted for a format with objective-type examination format in the first phase. My concern arises from the premise that if the system is unable to throw up truly meritorious student to start with, it is unlikely that the same students can bear the pressure after 12th standard which defines the direction to the career of a Student, when she/he is required to opt for a particular stream, viz., Arts, Commerce or Science.

Since I have initiated a discussion on this topic I would like to suggest some changes in the education system and teaching methods in the country.

First and foremost, we should move away from making “Pariksharthi”(parrots) to “Vidyarthi”(learners) students and this can be achieved as follows:

1) Introduction of subjects that add moral values and self-discipline in students could be made compulsory.

2) Monthly guest lectures involving lecturers from outside the teaching community and from the real world must be invited to interact with students on at least a monthly basis. This would make students aware about the common problems/issues and also will help them in gaining practical knowledge outside the education world.

3) There should be a motivational lecture every month to avoid boredom and depression amongst students. Such lectures from a motivational expert would also help guide them in pursuing their career goals and in personality building.

4) Sports should be important part of the curriculum with special emphasis on creating future sportsmen. After all, real business can only thrive on good sportsman spirit.

5) Subjects such as History, Geography, Physics, Biology and Chemistry should be taught with the aid of audio-visuals and clay models so as to create a real “see-touch-feel” experience and a sense of curiosity and quicker learning among students. Also, there should be only objective-type question papers for these subjects.

6) Every student should be encouraged to give at least 5 minute speech in any language in front of all students of a class.

7) Assessment should be in terms of grades and not percentage marks.

The main theme is to simplify the teaching pattern & assessment of the students. Technology has improved a long ago, but still we are practicing the same old tradition of teaching. The Board (Maharashtra Board) has only taken efforts to liberalize the marking system and increasing the percentage of marks scored by the students. But, “Can we think for changing the pattern of teaching to nourish and create the future of India?” as we all know that there is dearth of students in Science specialisation to carry out research in different fields.

Where India is Heading?

It’s been long break for me to write again in my blog on a new, interesting, heartbreaking and deeply concerned issue which many of us have ignored and are still ignoring and should be given a deep thought by everyone for the benefit of our descendents. The idea for this theme has given by one of the best professors of our college whom I admire and feel proud about. Though there is too much pessimistic (may get real) view in this article but there is a small solution at the end which I can think of. So I will ask my beloved friends to give five minutes of their time to this.

So the topic which touched by one of the student was “Will Indian economy sustain the current growth rate?”

The answer given by the Sir was “No” with reasons which I have mentioned below with the examples he has substantiated to prove the facts.

The Indian Economy is suffering from following worst eight factors which may dampen the growth of our country and we may not feel proud of being an Indian citizen if we not act now.

1) Inflation: The inflation may be a result of following individual or group phenomenon.

    a. Headline: This is the core inflation because of change in the price levels of manufactured products.
    b. Food: Today, everyone knows about this because of the spiralling vegetable prices. The main reasons  behind price hikes are:

         i. Erosion in the soil quality due to exploitation of land by inorganic fertilizers
        ii. Scarcity of Water for irrigation
       iii. Conversion of Fertile land into unproductive land for dwelling and other purposes to satisfy the demand from exploding population
   c. Water: We are polluting our sacred rivers like The Ganges, Narmada, Kaveri, etc. which is resulting into  harming the lives of people who earn their loaf of bread. The States are fighting among themselves for river water for their share which becomes the issue for common people when we don’t get it in hot summers.

    d. Energy: Those living in suburbs can’t even think of living without electricity for even a moment. But, the fact is that the country is facing acute shortage at 13% of peak demand. It will not be far for those who are enjoying the luxury as affording it may be choice for few. We may have to shell out more for the same in future. The next big thing is the supply of resources like Indian coal (very polluting), Imported coal (may become costliest as like Onions), Nuclear (opposition from the locals), Water (States, even our neighbouring countries are fighting for this), Solar (not affordable as of now), Crude oil (The wallet burning issue for everyone) are constraints.

2) Population: Some of us may feel a false proud of being a partner for surpassing China as the world’s most populous country in few years ahead. But, this will not be a good comparison as China is almost 4 times the size of Indian geography and we may have to build Megacities and serving them will be a herculean task in itself.

3) Infrastructure: The Country has body called “Planning Commission” which may have plan for transforming Mumbai into Shanghai and many other cities into like other modern cities, but the implementation may hang up for over decades as there will more petitions in Court rather than searching for solutions/alternatives. And then we will require some more bridges, roads, transport system when we will be actually completing the pending work which will not be able to fulfil the demand requiring at a future date.

4) Corruption: The common man is getting sleepless nights in counting the number of zeros one has stolen from one of his suitcase. Day by day, everyone is competing to score a new high for achieving defamation and even able to manage to rescue himself for a paltry sum or punishment. But, Corruption results in increasing speculation in commodities and spiralling inflation and round tripping of money which again will hurt the common man.

5) Pollution: This again is contentious issue as we think that we did not produce as much emission as of developed countries. Though we are aware of the disastrous consequences, we are harming the biodiversity only to hurt ourselves at the end.

6) Regionalism: The creation of different states is looming as a big threat as once our predecessors has fought for developing a nation called “India” and yet we are not successful in calling ourselves as a son/daughter of India as depicted in the film “Chak De India” (Shahrukh khan refusing the hockey players to be part of Indian Team because of their affection to regionalism). Creation of more states will lead to dividing ourselves into nuclear families and we are aware of the problems faced by such families. This may give benefit to a few but resulting in unnecessary spending on the system to run the show of a New State.

7) Armed Forces Corruption: The image of Army has suffered a setback with “Adarsh Scam” in Mumbai and in many such cases before like Bofors scam, Scam in purchasing jackets for Soldiers in Siachin, etc. This is like “Watchman looting his owner”. How can we feel secured in such a case when we are threatened by our own security guards?

8) Crony Capitalism: This means getting closer to politicians/power and building your house. This results in to widening the gap between rich and poor. This was proved by the recent “Nira Radia Tapes”. Should we regulate the lobbying? Is it beneficial for the Industry or the Nation?

It may be difficult to put my anger in few words over here, but I have tried to make it short and clear. The picture presented above looks murkier, this is just the start of a long process and we need to act as an Individual/Indian Citizen to stop exploitation of our own. This is a long term view and the decaying is happening very slowly without the attention of the stakeholders. One may think that he will get relief from this as this will not hurt him and his children will manage their problem, hence he should continue enjoying his remaining life. But this may not be true as these problems will appear in his lifetime as the pace of occurrence of these events will be much faster in the future. Thus, in order not to see this reality actually occur in our lifetime we need to find solutions for every problem and implement the change acting as a change carrier.

Though there can’t be one solution to solve all these problems at one go. I would like to suggest a solution which I thought would at least serve the purpose in slowing the deterioration and exploitation of The Mother Earth and its Sons/Daughters which will able to heal the root cause.

We need to act on the footsteps, as the proverb says “You reap what you Sow”. This will happen if we follow the good moral standards and imbibe self-discipline. We need understand the importance of Accountability and Responsibility which is the backbone for success of any mission. We always run away from our problems thinking that “Someone” will take birth and will find solution to above problems and lead in the front. But this is impossible to happen and we need start with each individual playing his own part. This will at least help in rooting out corruption which is the main culprit. So, get ready and help me to act along these lines.

Friday, September 3, 2010

Will RBI Increase Interest Rate?









The global economic crisis has kept RBI busy throughout the last year in relaxing the liquidity situation in the Indian Economy. But, with the growth picking up faster than expected along with the supply side constraint in food sector due to the poor monsoon in last year, RBI started acting in reverse direction from the October 2009. The Inflation (WPI) figures for the economy swung like a see-saw, being in negative zone for two months upto August 2009 then it started heading towards northwards & became a problem to RBI & to everybody resulting in negative returns for the savings. The WPI touched as high as 11.2% in April as the inflation in Non food products (WPI excluding food products and food articles) touched to 7.3% in June 2010 i.e. along with the food sector, the inflation in non food items shows growth in demand for items of other sectors also.

Money supply (M3) growth on a year-on-year basis moderated from 16.8 per cent at end-March 2010 to 15.3 per cent as on July 2, 2010 reflecting a slowdown in the growth in bank deposits. The month June saw higher credit demand from the corporate sector because of BWA & 3G Auction & payment of advance tax deposits. Year-on-year non-food credit growth accelerated from 17.1 per cent in March 2010 to 22.3 per cent as on July 2, 2010, which was higher than the indicative trajectory of 20 per cent set out in the April 2010 Monetary Policy Statement. This has prompted RBI to increase repo rate & reverse repo rate to increase by 25 bps & 50 bps respectively to restrict growth because of higher credit offtake. Rough estimates show that the total flow of financial resources from banks, non-banks and external sources to the commercial sector during Q1 of 2010-11 was at Rs.2,50,000 crore as against Rs.61,000 crore during Q1 of 2009-10. This shows that the demand has picked up in the industrial sector to fulfill domestic consumption requirement. This means Indian manufacturing industry is on the growth trajectory.

From July 1, 2010 bank have shifted to base rate system.  Most of the banks have kept their rates around 8%. This has resulted into industry issuing more CP’s to meet their short term demand as it comes at cheaper cost & also its time saving. But because of this, banks credit offtake may slow down to the small extent.

Barring some instances of positive growth in Euro zone countries (Germany Q2 growth at 2.2%), the trends in US are still not showing any signs of significant growth & unemployment claims are still rising. The developed countries are growing with meagre rate of around 1%. Also there are some signs of slowdown in China. Many analysts are of the view that the growth in the Global economy in the second half will be lesser compared to the first half. This may lead to commodities & crude oil prices trade between the same brackets as of now for a longer time. So, In India, where the petrol prices are decontrolled recently, the public may not have to bear rising prices for at least a few months. Since, diesel prices are not decontrolled; I do not expect changes in diesel prices with the change in petrol prices. Therefore, there will not be a significant impact on inflation because of change in fuel prices.

Now, RBI will be coming with its mid-quarter review on September 16, 2010 (first time). I do not expect that RBI will increase repo & reverse repo rate in this review, because of following reasons:

1)      As can be seen in the following graph, the overall WPI & all its major components have started rising after the month of September 2009. Since WPI is calculated on Year-on-Year basis, the rate of inflation will smoothen in the future months to come.
2)      The primary articles in WPI have weightage of 22.03% & it mainly consists of food articles weighing 15.40. With India receiving above average rainfall during this monsoon in almost every part of the country, the food inflation will come down to single digits.

3)      The IIP index has shown a growth of 7.1% in the month of June. Also the sector has grown with 3.4% in July marginally up by 0.2 % from 3.2% in June 2010. The core sector contributes around 26% in IIP index. Therefore, IIP will index will be hovering around the same range for the month of July. This means the credit offtake by the industry will not be showing significant changes during this period.
4)      In the month of September, Advance tax payment will be made & it is expected that it will suck around Rs. 55,000-60,000 Cr of money from the system. Since there is a tight situation in the market, banks may issue CD’s in the coming month to manage the liquidity situation.
5)      RBI is going to come with the second-half calendar for government borrowing. The volume of issuances have come down substantially in the month of July from Rs. 3,42,362 Cr in the first fortnight of July to Rs. 3,27,720 Cr in the second fortnight of the same month. So, in September, the issuances of G-sec are supposed to be higher than in the month of August. Though the Government had received money in the form of 3G & BWA auction more than expectation, the Government has come with additional fiscal expenditure of Rs. 54,000 Cr.
6)      The RBI has increased the repo rate in the month of March, April (25 bps each) & in July (50 bps), the reverse repo rate is increased in the month of March, April (25 bps each) & in July (75 bps). From last October 2009, the increase in CRR is 100 bps. As the monetary measures require some time lag to show their effect, RBI may not come up with revision in this mid quarter review.

Let’s see what’s there in the RBI basket for the public on the occasion of coming festivals. 

Friday, August 13, 2010

Indian Political System of My Dream

India is a country with diversity in people, region, languages, culture, tradition & many more things. There are too many political parties to put forth the voice of common people. But, are these political parties really working for the common man? How would a common man know that the funds given by the government for carrying out the proposed work is utilised or not? & too many questions cannot be answered.

When the election comes, the leader of a political party publishes his promises (Future Activities which he will carry out for well being of people), but more than half of these promises are not fulfilled & the general public forgot the promises made by a politician after some days. So, the current system of electing a representative for municipal, state & national elections should be slightly modified.

A Review System should be built up as like the appraisal system carried out in professional organisation. Whenever in the election, a leader comes up with promises, he should mention the tentative duration by which these promises will get fulfilled. This review committee should consists of a lawyer, political leader of opposite party(not compulsory), accountant, a social worker & committee should have a proper record keeping system. Also, each group/subgroup should have at least one young member (age: 18-30). The number of persons in a committee will also be dependent on the work area of elected representative. These review committees should be categorised into 3 groups.

Each Subgroup in the First group, (the review committee for inspecting Corporators) will look after 20 Elected Corporators. Each subgroup under the Second Group of Committee will look after 5 MLA’s. Each Subgroup under third Review committee Group will look after 5 MP’s. Depending on the number of Corporators/MLA's/MP's, subgroups should be formed where the structure of member committee will be the same as proposed above. The review committee members will be elected by the leader of opposite party. The leader from opposite party will get selected based on his educational qualification (e.g. for a Corporator review committee, from all leaders those who have contested for elections only one person will be selected who will belong to the party which does not have the majority in that 20 region, preferably based on their highest educational qualification). The administration expenses of review committee will be funded by donation given by public/corporates. The review system should be carried out twice in a period of five years (Since generally candidate is selected as Corporator, MLA or MP for 5 Years), particularly after 2 years of duration.

The elected representative who found guilty of not achieving 60 % of their promises will be debarred from contesting election for next two terms i.e for 10 years.

Friday, May 14, 2010

Justice to the Public


The dispute between RIL and RNRL has resulted in a verdict in favour of RIL, indirectly and effectively in the larger public interest. The Supreme Court judgement says that a country’s natural resources are national property and that the Government has the right to draft, design and manage policy related to the nation’s resources.
The dispute goes back to 2005 when the properties left behind by late Dhirubhai Ambani(upon his death) was to be divided between the two Ambani Brothers, Mukesh and Anil. According to the MoU Signed between two brothers in 2005, RIL was required to sell 28 mmscmd of gas from KG-D-6 basin at $2.34 per mmBtu for 17 years to ADAG Company RNRL. However, in 2007, the Government revised this price to $4.2 per mmBtu.
The judgement clearly states that individuals (even though they may be controlling managers of a company) make personal contracts without taking the consent of the shareholders of a public limited company. This also possibly sets a new trend that the Government should review all its contracts with such private entities that are carrying out the production or the excavation of minerals or other natural resources. Private players must not take unfair advantage of their influence on key ministers and politicians and make hefty profits by acquiring such resources through non-transparent means. This judgment will also eventually serve the purpose of creating a level playing field and will help in effectivedistribution and utilisation of national resources.
The verdict will prevent an estimated loss of of Rs. 3000 Cr per annum for RIL which would have occurred (at $ 2.34 per mmBtu). Cost of gas for the RNRL project will increase further and it may have to rethink upon its strategy of building greenfield power projects based on concessional gas supplies. The fate of NTPC-RIL contract which is based on $ 2.34 per mmBtu will depend on the government’s decision, since NTPC is Public Sector Company.